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Vereya Stara Zagora vs Sokol Markovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
FT
1 – 4
Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
9/19/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 7Trace Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora27%
×Draw20%
Sokol Markovo53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vereya Stara Zagora
1.59
Sokol Markovo
2.29

Sokol Markovo creates 44% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 98 away

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
0.75
Sokol Markovo
0.72

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
3.86
Sokol Markovo
2.43

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par
Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Sokol Markovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw
47%
Vereya Stara Zagora or Sokol Markovo
80%
Draw or Sokol Markovo
73%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
12%
Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
80%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
47%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
21%
Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
90%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
66%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
33%
Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.86 · 36 matches

Sokol Markovo away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.43 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.75 + Sokol Markovo defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sokol Markovo attack 0.72 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
27%
level
20%
Sokol Markovo scores more
53%

Sokol Markovo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sokol Markovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vereya Stara Zagora vs Sokol Markovo

Sokol Markovo beat Vereya Stara Zagora 4-1 in Third League - Southeast on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Trace Arena in Stara Zagora.