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Sokol Markovo vs Vereya Stara Zagora — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
3/18/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 24Stadion Sokol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sokol Markovo75%
×Draw14%
Vereya Stara Zagora11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Markovo
2.99
Vereya Stara Zagora
1.09

Sokol Markovo creates 174% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 36 away

creates per match

Sokol Markovo
1.68
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.53

allows per match

Sokol Markovo
1.66
Vereya Stara Zagora
4.31

finishing

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par
Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Markovo ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Sokol Markovo or draw
89%
Sokol Markovo or Vereya Stara Zagora
86%
Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora
25%

Winning margin

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
55%
Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
95%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
79%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
56%
Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
66%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
30%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
87%
Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Markovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.66 · 100 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Markovo attack 1.68 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 4.31 → ÷2 → 2.99

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.53 + Sokol Markovo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Sokol Markovo scores more
75%
level
14%
Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
11%

Sokol Markovo at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Sokol Markovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Sokol Markovo 4–0 Vereya Stara Zagora

Sokol Markovo beat Vereya Stara Zagora 4-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol in Markovo.