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Vereya Stara Zagora vs Septemvri Sofia — First League 2018

Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
7/23/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 1Trace Arena (Stara Zagora)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora34%
×Draw26%
Septemvri Sofia39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vereya Stara Zagora
1.24
Septemvri Sofia
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 73 away

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
0.63
Septemvri Sofia
0.89

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
1.81
Septemvri Sofia
1.85

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par
Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Septemvri Sofia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw
61%
Vereya Stara Zagora or Septemvri Sofia
74%
Draw or Septemvri Sofia
66%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
15%
Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
71%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
35%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
13%
Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals
74%
Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
39%
Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
47%
Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Septemvri Sofia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.85 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.63 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.24

Septemvri Sofia attack 0.89 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
34%
level
26%
Septemvri Sofia scores more
39%

Septemvri Sofia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vereya Stara Zagora vs Septemvri Sofia

Vereya Stara Zagora and Septemvri Sofia drew 0-0 in First League on July 23, 2018.

The match was played at Trace Arena (Stara Zagora).