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Septemvri Sofia vs Vereya Stara Zagora — First League 2018

Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
11/3/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Vasil Levski National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Septemvri Sofia68%
×Draw19%
Vereya Stara Zagora13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Septemvri Sofia
2.15
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.79

Septemvri Sofia creates 172% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 16 away

creates per match

Septemvri Sofia
1.04
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.19

allows per match

Septemvri Sofia
1.39
Vereya Stara Zagora
3.25

finishing

Septemvri Sofia+0.00on par
Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Septemvri Sofia ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Septemvri Sofia or draw
87%
Septemvri Sofia or Vereya Stara Zagora
81%
Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora
32%

Winning margin

Septemvri Sofia wins by 2+
44%
Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Septemvri Sofia 1+ goals
88%
Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals
63%
Septemvri Sofia 3+ goals
36%
Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
55%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
19%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Septemvri Sofia (draw refunded)
84%
Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Septemvri Sofia at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.39 · 71 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.19, concedes 3.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Septemvri Sofia attack 1.04 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.15

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.19 + Septemvri Sofia defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Septemvri Sofia scores more
68%
level
19%
Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
13%

Septemvri Sofia at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Septemvri Sofia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Septemvri Sofia vs Vereya Stara Zagora

Septemvri Sofia beat Vereya Stara Zagora 1-0 in First League on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Vasil Levski National Stadium in Sofia.