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Vereya Stara Zagora vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
FT
0 – 8
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
11/12/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 17Trace Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora17%
×Draw18%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vereya Stara Zagora
1.21
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
2.50

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II creates 107% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 92 away

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
0.75
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.14

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
3.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.66

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw
35%
Vereya Stara Zagora or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
82%
Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
83%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
6%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
43%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
70%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
34%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
12%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
92%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
71%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
21%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.86 · 36 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.66 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.75 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.14 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
17%
level
18%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
65%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Vereya Stara Zagora 0–8 Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II beat Vereya Stara Zagora 8-0 in Third League - Southeast on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Trace Arena in Stara Zagora.