Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 0–1 Vereya Stara Zagora

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vereya Stara Zagora

5/21/2023

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 36Stadion Sadovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II80%

×Draw12%

Vereya Stara Zagora7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv IIExpected goals in this matchVereya Stara Zagora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.03

0.84

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

3.03

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.84

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II creates 261% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 36 away

1.75

creates per match

0.53

1.15

allows per match

4.31

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

1.75

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.53

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

1.15

Vereya Stara Zagora

4.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or draw

93%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or Vereya Stara Zagora

88%

Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora

20%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+

61%

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals

95%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals

80%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals

57%

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals

57%

Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals

21%

Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

91%

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 92 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.75 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 4.31 → ÷2 → 3.03

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.53 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more

80%

level

12%

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more

7%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff