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Vereya Stara Zagora vs Izvor Gorski izvor — Third League - Southeast 2018

Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
FT
0 – 2
Izvor Gorski izvor
Izvor Gorski izvor
3/27/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 23Trace Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora14%
×Draw18%
Izvor Gorski izvor68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vereya Stara Zagora
0.99
Izvor Gorski izvor
2.37

Izvor Gorski izvor creates 139% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
0.75
Izvor Gorski izvor
0.88

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
3.86
Izvor Gorski izvor
1.24

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par
Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Izvor Gorski izvor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw
32%
Vereya Stara Zagora or Izvor Gorski izvor
82%
Draw or Izvor Gorski izvor
86%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
5%
Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
63%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
26%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
8%
Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals
91%
Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals
68%
Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
17%
Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.86 · 36 matches

Izvor Gorski izvor away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.75 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.99

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 0.88 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
14%
level
18%
Izvor Gorski izvor scores more
68%

Izvor Gorski izvor at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Izvor Gorski izvor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vereya Stara Zagora vs Izvor Gorski izvor

Izvor Gorski izvor beat Vereya Stara Zagora 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Trace Arena in Stara Zagora.