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Izvor Gorski izvor vs Vereya Stara Zagora — Third League - Southeast 2018

Izvor Gorski izvor
Izvor Gorski izvor
FT
5 – 2
Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
9/12/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 6Stadion Gorski Izvor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Izvor Gorski izvor83%
×Draw11%
Vereya Stara Zagora6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Izvor Gorski izvor
2.98
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.68

Izvor Gorski izvor creates 338% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 36 away

creates per match

Izvor Gorski izvor
1.65
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.53

allows per match

Izvor Gorski izvor
0.82
Vereya Stara Zagora
4.31

finishing

Izvor Gorski izvor+0.00on par
Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Izvor Gorski izvor ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Izvor Gorski izvor or draw
94%
Izvor Gorski izvor or Vereya Stara Zagora
89%
Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora
17%

Winning margin

Izvor Gorski izvor wins by 2+
64%
Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Izvor Gorski izvor 1+ goals
95%
Izvor Gorski izvor 2+ goals
79%
Izvor Gorski izvor 3+ goals
56%
Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
49%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
15%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Izvor Gorski izvor (draw refunded)
93%
Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Izvor Gorski izvor at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Izvor Gorski izvor attack 1.65 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 4.31 → ÷2 → 2.98

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.53 + Izvor Gorski izvor defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Izvor Gorski izvor scores more
83%
level
11%
Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
6%

Izvor Gorski izvor at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Izvor Gorski izvor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Izvor Gorski izvor 5–2 Vereya Stara Zagora

Izvor Gorski izvor beat Vereya Stara Zagora 5-2 in Third League - Southeast on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Gorski Izvor in Gorski Izvor.