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Vereya Stara Zagora vs Gigant Saedinenie — Third League - Southeast 2018

Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
FT
1 – 6
Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
9/5/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 5Trace Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora15%
×Draw17%
Gigant Saedinenie68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vereya Stara Zagora
1.08
Gigant Saedinenie
2.51

Gigant Saedinenie creates 132% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 136 away

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
0.75
Gigant Saedinenie
1.17

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
3.86
Gigant Saedinenie
1.42

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par
Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Gigant Saedinenie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw
32%
Vereya Stara Zagora or Gigant Saedinenie
83%
Draw or Gigant Saedinenie
85%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
5%
Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
66%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
29%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
10%
Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
92%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
71%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
18%
Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.86 · 36 matches

Gigant Saedinenie away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.75 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.08

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.17 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 2.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
15%
level
17%
Gigant Saedinenie scores more
68%

Gigant Saedinenie at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vereya Stara Zagora vs Gigant Saedinenie

Gigant Saedinenie beat Vereya Stara Zagora 6-1 in Third League - Southeast on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Trace Arena in Stara Zagora.