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Gigant Saedinenie vs Vereya Stara Zagora — Third League - Southeast 2018

Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
FT
6 – 1
Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
4/8/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 28Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie84%
×Draw11%
Vereya Stara Zagora5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gigant Saedinenie
3.07
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.64

Gigant Saedinenie creates 380% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 36 away

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie
1.83
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.53

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie
0.74
Vereya Stara Zagora
4.31

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par
Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw
95%
Gigant Saedinenie or Vereya Stara Zagora
89%
Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora
16%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
66%
Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
95%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
80%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
58%
Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
47%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
14%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
94%
Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 4.31 → ÷2 → 3.07

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.53 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more
84%
level
11%
Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
5%

Gigant Saedinenie at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Gigant Saedinenie 6–1 Vereya Stara Zagora

Gigant Saedinenie beat Vereya Stara Zagora 6-1 in Third League - Southeast on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Saedinenie.