Vereya Stara Zagora 0–3 Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Vereya Stara Zagora

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

4/21/2019

First League · Relegation Round - 4Trace Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora33%

×Draw27%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vereya Stara ZagoraExpected goals in this matchEtar Veliko Tarnovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.31

Vereya Stara Zagora

1.18

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.31

Etar Veliko Tarnovo creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 69 away

0.63

creates per match

0.81

1.81

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.63

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

0.81

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora

1.81

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Etar Veliko Tarnovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw

60%

Vereya Stara Zagora or Etar Veliko Tarnovo

73%

Draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo

67%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+

14%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals

69%

Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals

33%

Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals

12%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals

73%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals

38%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)

46%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.63 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.18

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 0.81 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more

33%

level

27%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more

40%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Etar Veliko Tarnovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff