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Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Vereya Stara Zagora — First League 2018

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
3/29/2019First LeagueFirst League · Relegation Round - 1Ivaylo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Etar Veliko Tarnovo70%
×Draw19%
Vereya Stara Zagora11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
2.17
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.74

Etar Veliko Tarnovo creates 193% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 16 away

creates per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.08
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.19

allows per match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo
1.29
Vereya Stara Zagora
3.25

finishing

Etar Veliko Tarnovo+0.00on par
Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Etar Veliko Tarnovo ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or draw
89%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Vereya Stara Zagora
81%
Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora
30%

Winning margin

Etar Veliko Tarnovo wins by 2+
46%
Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1+ goals
89%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2+ goals
64%
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 3+ goals
36%
Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
52%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
17%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Etar Veliko Tarnovo (draw refunded)
86%
Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.29 · 66 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.19, concedes 3.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Etar Veliko Tarnovo attack 1.08 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.17

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.19 + Etar Veliko Tarnovo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Etar Veliko Tarnovo scores more
70%
level
19%
Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
11%

Etar Veliko Tarnovo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Etar Veliko Tarnovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Etar Veliko Tarnovo vs Vereya Stara Zagora

Etar Veliko Tarnovo beat Vereya Stara Zagora 3-0 in First League on March 29, 2019.

The match was played at Ivaylo Stadium in Veliko Tarnovo.