Vereya Stara Zagora 1–6 Botev Vratsa

Vereya Stara Zagora

FT

1 – 6

HT: 0 – 4

Botev Vratsa

5/1/2019

First League · Relegation Round - 6Trace Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora34%

×Draw26%

Botev Vratsa39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vereya Stara ZagoraExpected goals in this matchBotev Vratsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.37

Vereya Stara Zagora

1.26

Botev Vratsa

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 136 away

0.63

creates per match

0.93

1.81

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.63

Botev Vratsa

0.93

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora

1.81

Botev Vratsa

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Botev Vratsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw

61%

Vereya Stara Zagora or Botev Vratsa

74%

Draw or Botev Vratsa

66%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+

15%

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals

72%

Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals

36%

Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals

13%

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals

75%

Botev Vratsa 2+ goals

40%

Botev Vratsa 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)

47%

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Botev Vratsa away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.63 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.26

Botev Vratsa attack 0.93 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more

34%

level

26%

Botev Vratsa scores more

39%

Botev Vratsa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Botev Vratsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff