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Botev Vratsa vs Vereya Stara Zagora — First League 2018

Botev Vratsa
Botev Vratsa
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
4/14/2019First LeagueFirst League · Relegation Round - 3Botev Vratsa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Botev Vratsa72%
×Draw18%
Vereya Stara Zagora10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Vratsa
2.15
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.66

Botev Vratsa creates 226% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 16 away

creates per match

Botev Vratsa
1.04
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.19

allows per match

Botev Vratsa
1.12
Vereya Stara Zagora
3.25

finishing

Botev Vratsa+0.00on par
Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Vratsa ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Botev Vratsa or draw
90%
Botev Vratsa or Vereya Stara Zagora
82%
Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora
28%

Winning margin

Botev Vratsa wins by 2+
47%
Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Botev Vratsa 1+ goals
88%
Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
63%
Botev Vratsa 3+ goals
36%
Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
48%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
14%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Botev Vratsa (draw refunded)
88%
Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Vratsa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.12 · 139 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.19, concedes 3.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Vratsa attack 1.04 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.15

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.19 + Botev Vratsa defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Botev Vratsa scores more
72%
level
18%
Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
10%

Botev Vratsa at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Botev Vratsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Botev Vratsa 5–0 Vereya Stara Zagora

Botev Vratsa beat Vereya Stara Zagora 5-0 in First League on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Botev Vratsa in Vratsa.