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Vereya Stara Zagora vs Botev Plovdiv — First League 2018

Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
9/30/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Trace Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora26%
×Draw27%
Botev Plovdiv47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vereya Stara Zagora
1.00
Botev Plovdiv
1.43

Botev Plovdiv creates 43% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 136 away

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
0.63
Botev Plovdiv
1.05

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora
1.81
Botev Plovdiv
1.38

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Botev Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw
53%
Vereya Stara Zagora or Botev Plovdiv
73%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv
74%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
10%
Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
63%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
26%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
8%
Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
76%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
42%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
36%
Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Botev Plovdiv away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.38 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.63 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.00

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.05 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
26%
level
27%
Botev Plovdiv scores more
47%

Botev Plovdiv at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Vereya Stara Zagora 1–2 Botev Plovdiv

Botev Plovdiv beat Vereya Stara Zagora 2-1 in First League on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Trace Arena in Stara Zagora.