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Botev Plovdiv vs Vereya Stara Zagora — First League 2018

Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vereya Stara Zagora
Vereya Stara Zagora
2/23/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Komatevo Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Botev Plovdiv75%
×Draw17%
Vereya Stara Zagora9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv
2.31
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.64

Botev Plovdiv creates 261% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 16 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv
1.36
Vereya Stara Zagora
0.19

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv
1.08
Vereya Stara Zagora
3.25

finishing

Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par
Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv or draw
91%
Botev Plovdiv or Vereya Stara Zagora
83%
Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora
25%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+
51%
Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals
90%
Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals
67%
Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals
40%
Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals
47%
Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals
14%
Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)
90%
Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 139 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.19, concedes 3.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.36 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.31

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.19 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Botev Plovdiv scores more
75%
level
17%
Vereya Stara Zagora scores more
9%

Botev Plovdiv at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Plovdiv vs Vereya Stara Zagora

Botev Plovdiv beat Vereya Stara Zagora 4-0 in First League on February 23, 2019.

The match was played at Komatevo Stadium in Plovdiv.