Vereya Stara Zagora 1–2 Beroe II: Result & Stats

Vereya Stara Zagora

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Beroe II

10/8/2022

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 11Trace Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Vereya Stara Zagora30%

×Draw20%

Beroe II50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vereya Stara ZagoraExpected goals in this matchBeroe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

2.31

Vereya Stara Zagora

1.76

Beroe II

2.31

Beroe II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 55 away

0.75

creates per match

0.76

3.86

allows per match

2.78

creates per match

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.75

Beroe II

0.76

allows per match

Vereya Stara Zagora

3.86

Beroe II

2.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Beroe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vereya Stara Zagora ↓

Beroe II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Vereya Stara Zagora or draw

50%

Vereya Stara Zagora or Beroe II

80%

Draw or Beroe II

70%

Winning margin

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+

15%

Beroe II wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals

83%

Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals

52%

Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals

26%

Beroe II 1+ goals

90%

Beroe II 2+ goals

67%

Beroe II 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)

37%

Beroe II (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vereya Stara Zagora at home — creates 0.75, concedes 3.86 · 36 matches

Beroe II away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.75 + Beroe II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 1.76

Beroe II attack 0.76 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more

30%

level

20%

Beroe II scores more

50%

Beroe II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Beroe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vereya Stara Zagora vs Beroe II

Beroe II beat Vereya Stara Zagora 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Trace Arena in Stara Zagora.

Vereya Stara Zagora vs Beroe II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vereya Stara Zagora vs Beroe II