Beroe II 3–0 Vereya Stara Zagora: Result & Stats

Beroe II

FT

3 – 0

Vereya Stara Zagora

4/19/2023

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 30Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Beroe II70%

×Draw16%

Vereya Stara Zagora14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beroe IIExpected goals in this matchVereya Stara Zagora

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.76

1.16

Beroe II

2.76

Vereya Stara Zagora

1.16

Beroe II creates 138% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 36 away

1.22

creates per match

0.53

1.78

allows per match

4.31

creates per match

Beroe II

1.22

Vereya Stara Zagora

0.53

allows per match

Beroe II

1.78

Vereya Stara Zagora

4.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beroe II+0.00on par

Vereya Stara Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe II ↓

Vereya Stara Zagora →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Beroe II or draw

86%

Beroe II or Vereya Stara Zagora

84%

Draw or Vereya Stara Zagora

30%

Winning margin

Beroe II wins by 2+

49%

Vereya Stara Zagora wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Beroe II 1+ goals

94%

Beroe II 2+ goals

76%

Beroe II 3+ goals

51%

Vereya Stara Zagora 1+ goals

69%

Vereya Stara Zagora 2+ goals

32%

Vereya Stara Zagora 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Beroe II (draw refunded)

84%

Vereya Stara Zagora (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

Vereya Stara Zagora away — creates 0.53, concedes 4.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe II attack 1.22 + Vereya Stara Zagora defence 4.31 → ÷2 → 2.76

Vereya Stara Zagora attack 0.53 + Beroe II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Beroe II scores more

70%

level

16%

Vereya Stara Zagora scores more

14%

Beroe II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Beroe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff