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Veres Rivne vs Polessya — Premier League 2019

Veres Rivne
Veres Rivne
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Polessya
Polessya
3/11/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Veres Rivne25%
×Draw24%
Polessya50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veres Rivne
1.11
Polessya
1.66

Polessya creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Veres Rivne
1.12
Polessya
1.98

allows per match

Veres Rivne
1.33
Polessya
1.10

finishing

Veres Rivne-0.72scores less
Polessya-0.60scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne ↓

Polessya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Veres Rivne or draw
50%
Veres Rivne or Polessya
76%
Draw or Polessya
75%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne wins by 2+
10%
Polessya wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Veres Rivne 1+ goals
67%
Veres Rivne 2+ goals
30%
Veres Rivne 3+ goals
10%
Polessya 1+ goals
81%
Polessya 2+ goals
49%
Polessya 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)
34%
Polessya (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.33 · 5 matches

Polessya away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.10 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne attack 1.12 + Polessya defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Polessya attack 1.98 + Veres Rivne defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Veres Rivne scores more
25%
level
24%
Polessya scores more
50%

Polessya at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Polessya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Veres Rivne 5–1 Polessya

Veres Rivne beat Polessya 5-1 in Premier League on March 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Rivne.