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Polessya vs Veres Rivne — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Polessya
Polessya
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Veres Rivne
Veres Rivne
10/12/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportyvna Baza FK Polissya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Polessya57%
×Draw25%
Veres Rivne18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polessya
1.58
Veres Rivne
0.77

Polessya creates 105% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Polessya
1.85
Veres Rivne
0.70

allows per match

Polessya
0.85
Veres Rivne
1.30

finishing

Polessya+0.00on par
Veres Rivne+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polessya ↓

Veres Rivne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Polessya or draw
82%
Polessya or Veres Rivne
75%
Draw or Veres Rivne
43%

Winning margin

Polessya wins by 2+
30%
Veres Rivne wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Polessya 1+ goals
79%
Polessya 2+ goals
47%
Polessya 3+ goals
21%
Veres Rivne 1+ goals
54%
Veres Rivne 2+ goals
18%
Veres Rivne 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Polessya (draw refunded)
76%
Veres Rivne (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polessya at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Veres Rivne away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polessya attack 1.85 + Veres Rivne defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.58

Veres Rivne attack 0.70 + Polessya defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Polessya scores more
57%
level
25%
Veres Rivne scores more
18%

Polessya at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Polessya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polessya vs Veres Rivne

Polessya and Veres Rivne drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Sportyvna Baza FK Polissya in Berezyna.