Veres Rivne 0–2 Obolon'-Brovar: Result & Stats

Veres Rivne

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Obolon'-Brovar

O. Illin 42'

R. Taranukha 27'

5/3/2025

Premier League · Round 27Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Veres Rivne45%

×Draw26%

Obolon'-Brovar29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Veres RivneExpected goals in this matchObolon'-Brovar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.08

Veres Rivne

1.43

Obolon'-Brovar

1.08

Veres Rivne creates 32% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.28

creates per match

0.87

1.29

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Veres Rivne

1.28

Obolon'-Brovar

0.87

allows per match

Veres Rivne

1.29

Obolon'-Brovar

1.58

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Veres Rivne-0.50scores less

Obolon'-Brovar-0.07on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne ↓

Obolon'-Brovar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Veres Rivne or draw

71%

Veres Rivne or Obolon'-Brovar

74%

Draw or Obolon'-Brovar

55%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne wins by 2+

22%

Obolon'-Brovar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Veres Rivne 1+ goals

76%

Veres Rivne 2+ goals

42%

Veres Rivne 3+ goals

17%

Obolon'-Brovar 1+ goals

66%

Obolon'-Brovar 2+ goals

29%

Obolon'-Brovar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)

61%

Obolon'-Brovar (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.29 · 9 matches

Obolon'-Brovar away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.58 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne attack 1.28 + Obolon'-Brovar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.87 + Veres Rivne defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Veres Rivne scores more

45%

level

26%

Obolon'-Brovar scores more

29%

Veres Rivne at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Veres Rivne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

D. Marchenko

Obolon'-Brovar · G

8.3

Match Events

18'

Giorgi Kutsia

24'

Dmytro Godya

27'

R. Taranukha↳ D. Ustymenko

34'

34'

36'

42'

46'

46'

M. Protasevych← D. Hodia

50'

Vladyslav Sharay

52'

Rostyslav Taranukha

57'

V. Bliznichenko← D. Ustymenko

57'

K. Bychek← R. Taranukha

58'

V. Hrusha← R. Chernenko

62'

Luan← V. Sharai

62'

M. Haiduchyk← R. Stepaniuk

67'

Wendell Gabriel← D. Kliots

73'

T. Moroz← V. Kurko

80'

Y. Shevchenko← M. Smiian

80'

O. Slobodian← V. Vitenchuk

86'

Vitalii Hrusha

88'

Igor Kharatin

90+2'

Wendell Gabriel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VeresObolon'-Brovar

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots10

1.02Expected Goals (xG)0.83

5Corners3

9Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots10

5On Target4

2Off Target4

5Blocked2

5Inside Box3

7Outside Box7

Passing

53%Possession47%

389Total Passes328

307Accurate Passes259

79%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls15

5Yellow Cards3

2Red Cards0

0Offsides0