Obolon'-Brovar 0–0 Veres Rivne: Result & Stats

Obolon'-Brovar

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Veres Rivne

11/4/2024

Premier League · Round 12Obolon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Obolon'-Brovar39%

×Draw26%

Veres Rivne35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Obolon'-BrovarExpected goals in this matchVeres Rivne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.25

Obolon'-Brovar

1.34

Veres Rivne

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.20

creates per match

1.09

1.42

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Obolon'-Brovar

1.20

Veres Rivne

1.09

allows per match

Obolon'-Brovar

1.42

Veres Rivne

1.48

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

Obolon'-Brovar-0.42scores less

Veres Rivne-0.42scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Obolon'-Brovar ↓

Veres Rivne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Obolon'-Brovar or draw

65%

Obolon'-Brovar or Veres Rivne

74%

Draw or Veres Rivne

61%

Winning margin

Obolon'-Brovar wins by 2+

18%

Veres Rivne wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Obolon'-Brovar 1+ goals

74%

Obolon'-Brovar 2+ goals

39%

Obolon'-Brovar 3+ goals

15%

Veres Rivne 1+ goals

71%

Veres Rivne 2+ goals

36%

Veres Rivne 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Obolon'-Brovar (draw refunded)

53%

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Obolon'-Brovar at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.42 · 18 matches

Veres Rivne away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.48 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Obolon'-Brovar attack 1.20 + Veres Rivne defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

Veres Rivne attack 1.09 + Obolon'-Brovar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Obolon'-Brovar scores more

39%

level

26%

Veres Rivne scores more

35%

Obolon'-Brovar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Obolon'-Brovar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Yevgeniy Shevchenko

6'

Serhiy Sukhanov

32'

V. Bliznichenko← M. Hrysio

64'

Vladyslav Sharay

65'

V. Vitenchuk← V. Kurko

65'

K. Bychek← O. Slobodian

65'

D. Hodia← R. Stepaniuk

65'

V. Dakhnovskyi← V. Sharai

65'

M. Haiduchyk← M. Mrvaljević

72'

D. Kliots← Iago Siqueira

73'

Vitalii Dakhnovskyi

81'

D. Tesliuk← S. Sukhanov

89'

S. Nongoh← Luan

90+3'

Igor Medynsky

90+1'

Giorgi Kutsia

Obolon'-Brovar4-1-4-1

Veres4-4-2

87

▼

Mrvaljevi

7

▼

Stepaniuk

99

▼

Luan

20

▼

Siqueira

29

Kucherov

77

▼

95

3

33

6

23

1

15

3

2

11

▼

Hrysio

95

▼

Kurko

25

Hrusha

10

▼

Slobodian

17

Chernenko

9

Medynskyi

55

▼

Sukhanov

Manager: S. Shyshchenko

32'▲V. Bliznichenko←▼M. Hrysio

65'▲V. Vitenchuk←▼V. Kurko

65'▲K. Bychek←▼O. Slobodian

81'▲D. Tesliuk←▼S. Sukhanov

Obolon'-Brovar substitutes

7Bliznichenko44Vitenchuk21Bychek99Tesliuk14Chernov16Lukianchuk37Dubko8Taranukha23Rybka5Osman32Lomnytskyi4Moroz

Manager: O. Shandruk

65'▲D. Hodia←▼R. Stepaniuk

65'▲V. Dakhnovskyi←▼V. Sharai

65'▲M. Haiduchyk←▼M. Mrvaljević

72'▲D. Kliots←▼Iago Siqueira

89'▲S. Nongoh←▼Luan

Veres Rivne substitutes

8Hodia11Dakhnovskyi89Haiduchyk10Kliots90Nongoh57Melnyk17Protasevych22Baran44Checher1Yushchyshyn47Kohut