Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Veres Rivne vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Premier League 2019

Veres Rivne
Veres Rivne
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
11/25/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Veres Rivne29%
×Draw29%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veres Rivne
0.96
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.23

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv creates 28% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Veres Rivne
1.12
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.12

allows per match

Veres Rivne
1.33
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.80

finishing

Veres Rivne-0.72scores less
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv-0.26scores less

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne ↓

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Veres Rivne or draw
58%
Veres Rivne or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
71%
Draw or Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
71%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne wins by 2+
10%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Veres Rivne 1+ goals
62%
Veres Rivne 2+ goals
25%
Veres Rivne 3+ goals
7%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals
71%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals
35%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)
40%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.33 · 5 matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne attack 1.12 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.12 + Veres Rivne defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Veres Rivne scores more
29%
level
29%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more
42%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Metalist 1925 Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Veres Rivne 4–3 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

Veres Rivne beat Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 4-3 in Premier League on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Rivne.