Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1–2 Veres Rivne

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Veres Rivne

5/25/2024

Premier League · Round 30Stadion Livyi Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv44%

×Draw28%

Veres Rivne28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalist 1925 KharkivExpected goals in this matchVeres Rivne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.00

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.33

Veres Rivne

1.00

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

1.32

creates per match

1.29

0.72

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.32

Veres Rivne

1.29

allows per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

0.72

Veres Rivne

1.34

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv-0.52scores less

Veres Rivne-0.54scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ↓

Veres Rivne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or draw

72%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or Veres Rivne

72%

Draw or Veres Rivne

56%

Winning margin

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+

21%

Veres Rivne wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals

74%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals

38%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals

15%

Veres Rivne 1+ goals

63%

Veres Rivne 2+ goals

26%

Veres Rivne 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)

61%

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.72 · 5 matches

Veres Rivne away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.34 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.32 + Veres Rivne defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Veres Rivne attack 1.29 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more

44%

level

28%

Veres Rivne scores more

28%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Metalist 1925 Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff