Veres Rivne 0–0 Karpaty: Result & Stats

Veres Rivne

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Karpaty

8/3/2024

Premier League · Round 1Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Veres Rivne32%

×Draw26%

Karpaty42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Veres RivneExpected goals in this matchKarpaty

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.46

Veres Rivne

1.23

Karpaty

1.46

Karpaty creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.24

creates per match

1.59

1.32

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Veres Rivne

1.24

Karpaty

1.59

allows per match

Veres Rivne

1.32

Karpaty

1.21

-0.74scores less than expected

finishing

-0.51scores less than expected

finishing

Veres Rivne-0.74scores less

Karpaty-0.51scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne ↓

Karpaty →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Veres Rivne or draw

58%

Veres Rivne or Karpaty

74%

Draw or Karpaty

68%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne wins by 2+

13%

Karpaty wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Veres Rivne 1+ goals

71%

Veres Rivne 2+ goals

35%

Veres Rivne 3+ goals

13%

Karpaty 1+ goals

77%

Karpaty 2+ goals

43%

Karpaty 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)

43%

Karpaty (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.32 · 6 matches

Karpaty away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.21 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne attack 1.24 + Karpaty defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Karpaty attack 1.59 + Veres Rivne defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Veres Rivne scores more

32%

level

26%

Karpaty scores more

42%

Karpaty at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Karpaty will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Denys Miroshnichenko

45+3'

Yan Kostenko

57'

P. Polehenko← T. Sakiv

61'

Vladyslav Sharay

65'

V. Kucherov← D. Kliots

70'

M. Haiduchyk← M. Mrvaljević

73'

Pablo Alvarez

75'

Valerii Kucherov

84'

V. Klymenko← Pablo Álvarez

85'

D. Hodia← V. Dakhnovskyi

85'

V. Hakman← M. Protasevych

89'

Yan Kostenko

89'

Yan Kostenko

90+1'

V. Sydun← Igor Neves

90+1'

Stênio← Y. Pidlepenets

90+1'

A. Shakh← O. Kuzyk

Veres4-2-3-1

Karpaty4-1-4-1

10

▼

Neves

26

Kostenko

17

▼

Kuzyk

8

Chachua

7

▼

Pidlepene

23

▼

Álvarez

44

▼

3

4

11

35

23

9

3

33

17

▼

Protasevy

10

▼

7

77

20

11

▼

Dakhnovsk

87

▼

Mrvaljevi

Manager: O. Shandruk

65'▲V. Kucherov←▼D. Kliots

70'▲M. Haiduchyk←▼M. Mrvaljević

85'▲D. Hodia←▼V. Dakhnovskyi

85'▲V. Hakman←▼M. Protasevych

Veres Rivne substitutes

29Kucherov89Haiduchyk8Hodia71Hakman6Kutsia44Checher47Kohut91Svitiukha22Baran1Yushchyshyn

Manager: V. Lupashko

57'▲P. Polehenko←▼T. Sakiv

84'▲V. Klymenko←▼Pablo Álvarez

90+1'▲V. Sydun←▼Igor Neves

90+1'▲Stênio←▼Y. Pidlepenets

90+1'▲A. Shakh←▼O. Kuzyk

Karpaty substitutes

28Polehenko18Klymenko30Sydun43Stênio33Shakh1Kinareikin41Domchak32Lomnytskyi22Vekliak39Katrych9Tlumak16Riabov

Match Recap: Veres Rivne vs Karpaty

Veres Rivne and Karpaty drew 0-0 in Premier League on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Avanhard in Rivne.

Veres Rivne vs Karpaty — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Veres Rivne vs Karpaty