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Veres Rivne vs Karpaty — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Veres Rivne
Veres Rivne
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Karpaty
Karpaty
7/17/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Ukrajina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Veres Rivne44%
×Draw28%
Karpaty28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veres Rivne
1.30
Karpaty
0.97

Veres Rivne creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Veres Rivne
1.60
Karpaty
0.67

allows per match

Veres Rivne
1.27
Karpaty
1.00

finishing

Veres Rivne+0.00on par
Karpaty+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne ↓

Karpaty →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Veres Rivne or draw
72%
Veres Rivne or Karpaty
72%
Draw or Karpaty
56%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne wins by 2+
20%
Karpaty wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Veres Rivne 1+ goals
73%
Veres Rivne 2+ goals
37%
Veres Rivne 3+ goals
14%
Karpaty 1+ goals
62%
Karpaty 2+ goals
25%
Karpaty 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)
61%
Karpaty (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Karpaty away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne attack 1.60 + Karpaty defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Karpaty attack 0.67 + Veres Rivne defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Veres Rivne scores more
44%
level
28%
Karpaty scores more
28%

Veres Rivne at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Veres Rivne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Veres Rivne 1–2 Karpaty

Karpaty beat Veres Rivne 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ukrajina in L'viv.