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Veres Rivne vs Kalush — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Veres Rivne
Veres Rivne
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kalush
Kalush
9/22/2019Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 11Stadion Kolos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Veres Rivne45%
×Draw28%
Kalush27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veres Rivne
1.30
Kalush
0.95

Veres Rivne creates 37% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Veres Rivne
1.90
Kalush
1.20

allows per match

Veres Rivne
0.70
Kalush
0.70

finishing

Veres Rivne+0.00on par
Kalush+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne ↓

Kalush →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Veres Rivne or draw
73%
Veres Rivne or Kalush
72%
Draw or Kalush
55%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne wins by 2+
20%
Kalush wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Veres Rivne 1+ goals
73%
Veres Rivne 2+ goals
37%
Veres Rivne 3+ goals
14%
Kalush 1+ goals
61%
Kalush 2+ goals
25%
Kalush 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)
62%
Kalush (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Kalush away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne attack 1.90 + Kalush defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.30

Kalush attack 1.20 + Veres Rivne defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Veres Rivne scores more
45%
level
28%
Kalush scores more
27%

Veres Rivne at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Veres Rivne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Veres Rivne 1–1 Kalush

Veres Rivne and Kalush drew 1-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Kolos in Mlyniv.