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Kalush vs Veres Rivne — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Kalush
Kalush
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Veres Rivne
Veres Rivne
11/23/2019Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 22Stadion Khimik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kalush40%
×Draw25%
Veres Rivne35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kalush
1.50
Veres Rivne
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kalush
1.40
Veres Rivne
1.50

allows per match

Kalush
1.30
Veres Rivne
1.60

finishing

Kalush+0.00on par
Veres Rivne+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kalush ↓

Veres Rivne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kalush or draw
65%
Kalush or Veres Rivne
75%
Draw or Veres Rivne
60%

Winning margin

Kalush wins by 2+
19%
Veres Rivne wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kalush 1+ goals
78%
Kalush 2+ goals
44%
Kalush 3+ goals
19%
Veres Rivne 1+ goals
75%
Veres Rivne 2+ goals
41%
Veres Rivne 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kalush (draw refunded)
53%
Veres Rivne (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kalush at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Veres Rivne away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kalush attack 1.40 + Veres Rivne defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Veres Rivne attack 1.50 + Kalush defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kalush scores more
40%
level
25%
Veres Rivne scores more
35%

Kalush at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kalush will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Kalush 2–1 Veres Rivne

Kalush beat Veres Rivne 2-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Khimik in Kalush.