Veres Rivne 3–1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

Veres Rivne

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

M. Haiduchyk 45+5', 7'

V. Sharai 45+2'

S. Sten 89'

6/2/2024

Premier League · Relegation RoundStadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Veres Rivne50%

×Draw23%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Veres RivneExpected goals in this matchEpitsentr Dunayivtsi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.31

Veres Rivne

1.85

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.31

Veres Rivne creates 41% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.29

creates per match

1.06

1.57

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Veres Rivne

1.29

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.06

allows per match

Veres Rivne

1.57

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

2.42

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Veres Rivne-0.39scores less

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne ↓

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Veres Rivne or draw

73%

Veres Rivne or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

77%

Draw or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

50%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne wins by 2+

28%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Veres Rivne 1+ goals

84%

Veres Rivne 2+ goals

55%

Veres Rivne 3+ goals

28%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals

73%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals

38%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)

65%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 10 matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.42 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne attack 1.29 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.85

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.06 + Veres Rivne defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Veres Rivne scores more

50%

level

23%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more

27%

Veres Rivne at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Veres Rivne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

89

M. Haiduchyk

Veres Rivne · F

8.6

Match Events

7'

M. Haiduchyk

23'

Iago Siqueira Augusto

45+2'

V. Sharai

45+5'

M. Haiduchyk↳ V. Kucherov

46'

D. Hodia← Iago Siqueira

46'

S. Krystin← I. Bendera

54'

M. Poliuliakh← A. Bejenari

54'

A. Alibekov← M. Myroniuk

67'

Andriy Lipovuz

68'

D. Shastal← V. Dakhnovskyi

68'

Y. Morozko← V. Sharai

68'

O. Zhmuida← V. Krystin

73'

Y. Hlushchuk← A. Lipovuz

77'

M. Mrvaljević← M. Haiduchyk

80'

Akhmed Alibekov

84'

M. Shestakov← D. Balan

89'

S. Sten↳ D. Kravchuk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VeresEpitsentr

Overview

35%Possession65%

20Total Shots11

2.64Expected Goals (xG)0.90

6Corners4

11Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots11

7On Target2

8Off Target5

5Blocked4

15Inside Box5

5Outside Box6

Passing

35%Possession65%

254Total Passes464

197Accurate Passes396

78%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0