Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1–1 Veres Rivne

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Veres Rivne

V. Moroz 28'

M. Haiduchyk 80'

5/29/2024

Premier League · Relegation RoundStadion Livyi Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi34%

×Draw25%

Veres Rivne42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Epitsentr DunayivtsiExpected goals in this matchVeres Rivne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.56

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.37

Veres Rivne

1.56

Veres Rivne creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

1.31

creates per match

1.08

2.05

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

1.31

Veres Rivne

1.08

allows per match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi

2.05

Veres Rivne

1.43

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi-0.04on par

Veres Rivne-0.43scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi ↓

Veres Rivne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or draw

58%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Veres Rivne

75%

Draw or Veres Rivne

66%

Winning margin

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+

15%

Veres Rivne wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals

75%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals

40%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals

16%

Veres Rivne 1+ goals

79%

Veres Rivne 2+ goals

46%

Veres Rivne 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)

44%

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.05 · 11 matches

Veres Rivne away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.43 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.31 + Veres Rivne defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Veres Rivne attack 1.08 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more

34%

level

25%

Veres Rivne scores more

42%

Veres Rivne at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Veres Rivne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Sten

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · M

7.7

Match Events

28'

V. Moroz↳ A. Bejenari

35'

Vladyslav Krystin

45'

Danylo Kravchuk

46'

Y. Banada← A. Kukharuk

46'

M. Haiduchyk← M. Mrvaljević

52'

Vitalii Dakhnovskyi

69'

Yevhenii Morozko

73'

V. Sharai← D. Shastal

74'

A. Liashenko← I. Bendera

74'

M. Poliuliakh← M. Myroniuk

74'

O. Zhmuida← V. Krystin

77'

A. Alibekov← V. Moroz

80'

D. Hodia← Iago Siqueira

80'

M. Haiduchyk↳ Y. Morozko

83'

Y. Hlushchuk← A. Bejenari

88'

M. Shestakov← V. Dakhnovskyi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EpitsentrVeres

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots12

0.96Expected Goals (xG)2.20

4Corners4

11Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots12

3On Target3

8Off Target6

3Blocked3

6Inside Box10

8Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

326Total Passes424

261Accurate Passes344

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Premier League: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1–1 Veres Rivne

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 29, 2024.

Goals: V. Moroz (28'), M. Haiduchyk (80').

Veres Rivne controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Kiev.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1–1 Veres Rivne