Vere United 0–0 Dunbeholden: Result & Stats

Vere United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dunbeholden

3/23/2025

Premier League · Round 32Wembley Centre of Excellence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Vere United33%

×Draw29%

Dunbeholden38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vere UnitedExpected goals in this matchDunbeholden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.16

Vere United

1.05

Dunbeholden

1.16

Dunbeholden creates 10% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 101 away

0.73

creates per match

1.02

1.29

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Vere United

0.73

Dunbeholden

1.02

allows per match

Vere United

1.29

Dunbeholden

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vere United+0.00on par

Dunbeholden+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vere United ↓

Dunbeholden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vere United or draw

62%

Vere United or Dunbeholden

71%

Draw or Dunbeholden

67%

Winning margin

Vere United wins by 2+

13%

Dunbeholden wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Vere United 1+ goals

65%

Vere United 2+ goals

28%

Vere United 3+ goals

9%

Dunbeholden 1+ goals

69%

Dunbeholden 2+ goals

32%

Dunbeholden 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vere United (draw refunded)

46%

Dunbeholden (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vere United at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Dunbeholden away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.37 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vere United attack 0.73 + Dunbeholden defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.05

Dunbeholden attack 1.02 + Vere United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vere United scores more

33%

level

29%

Dunbeholden scores more

38%

Dunbeholden at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dunbeholden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff