Dunbeholden 4–2 Vere United: Result & Stats

Dunbeholden

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Vere United

4/7/2024

Premier League · Round 26Prison Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Dunbeholden50%

×Draw26%

Vere United25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunbeholdenExpected goals in this matchVere United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.99

Dunbeholden

1.52

Vere United

0.99

Dunbeholden creates 54% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 76 away

1.38

creates per match

0.74

1.25

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Dunbeholden

1.38

Vere United

0.74

allows per match

Dunbeholden

1.25

Vere United

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunbeholden+0.00on par

Vere United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunbeholden ↓

Vere United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Dunbeholden or draw

75%

Dunbeholden or Vere United

74%

Draw or Vere United

50%

Winning margin

Dunbeholden wins by 2+

25%

Vere United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dunbeholden 1+ goals

78%

Dunbeholden 2+ goals

45%

Dunbeholden 3+ goals

20%

Vere United 1+ goals

63%

Vere United 2+ goals

26%

Vere United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dunbeholden (draw refunded)

67%

Vere United (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunbeholden at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 93 matches

Vere United away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunbeholden attack 1.38 + Vere United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vere United attack 0.74 + Dunbeholden defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dunbeholden scores more

50%

level

26%

Vere United scores more

25%

Dunbeholden at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dunbeholden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff