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Vere United vs Chapelton — Premier League 2019

Vere United
Vere United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chapelton
Chapelton
1/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Wembley Centre of Excellence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vere United40%
×Draw29%
Chapelton31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vere United
1.18
Chapelton
1.00

Vere United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 52 away

creates per match

Vere United
0.73
Chapelton
0.71

allows per match

Vere United
1.29
Chapelton
1.63

finishing

Vere United+0.00on par
Chapelton+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vere United ↓

Chapelton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vere United or draw
69%
Vere United or Chapelton
71%
Draw or Chapelton
60%

Winning margin

Vere United wins by 2+
17%
Chapelton wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vere United 1+ goals
69%
Vere United 2+ goals
33%
Vere United 3+ goals
12%
Chapelton 1+ goals
63%
Chapelton 2+ goals
26%
Chapelton 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vere United (draw refunded)
56%
Chapelton (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vere United at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.29 · 78 matches

Chapelton away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vere United attack 0.73 + Chapelton defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.18

Chapelton attack 0.71 + Vere United defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vere United scores more
40%
level
29%
Chapelton scores more
31%

Vere United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vere United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Vere United 0–0 Chapelton

Vere United and Chapelton drew 0-0 in Premier League on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at Wembley Centre of Excellence in Hayes.