Chapelton 1–1 Vere United: Result & Stats

Chapelton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vere United

2/16/2025

Premier League · Round 26Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chapelton39%

×Draw26%

Vere United35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChapeltonExpected goals in this matchVere United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.25

Chapelton

1.34

Vere United

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 76 away

1.02

creates per match

0.74

1.77

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Chapelton

1.02

Vere United

0.74

allows per match

Chapelton

1.77

Vere United

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chapelton+0.00on par

Vere United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chapelton ↓

Vere United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chapelton or draw

65%

Chapelton or Vere United

74%

Draw or Vere United

61%

Winning margin

Chapelton wins by 2+

18%

Vere United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chapelton 1+ goals

74%

Chapelton 2+ goals

39%

Chapelton 3+ goals

15%

Vere United 1+ goals

71%

Vere United 2+ goals

36%

Vere United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chapelton (draw refunded)

53%

Vere United (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chapelton at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.77 · 52 matches

Vere United away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.67 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chapelton attack 1.02 + Vere United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.34

Vere United attack 0.74 + Chapelton defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Chapelton scores more

39%

level

26%

Vere United scores more

35%

Chapelton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Chapelton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff