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Verdal vs Trygg/Lade — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Verdal
Verdal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Trygg/Lade
Trygg/Lade
4/13/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 2Verdalskalk Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Verdal29%
×Draw21%
Trygg/Lade50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Verdal
1.58
Trygg/Lade
2.12

Trygg/Lade creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Verdal
1.85
Trygg/Lade
2.08

allows per match

Verdal
2.15
Trygg/Lade
1.31

finishing

Verdal+0.00on par
Trygg/Lade+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verdal ↓

Trygg/Lade →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Verdal or draw
50%
Verdal or Trygg/Lade
79%
Draw or Trygg/Lade
71%

Winning margin

Verdal wins by 2+
14%
Trygg/Lade wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Verdal 1+ goals
79%
Verdal 2+ goals
47%
Verdal 3+ goals
21%
Trygg/Lade 1+ goals
88%
Trygg/Lade 2+ goals
62%
Trygg/Lade 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Verdal (draw refunded)
37%
Trygg/Lade (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verdal at home — creates 1.85, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Trygg/Lade away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verdal attack 1.85 + Trygg/Lade defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.58

Trygg/Lade attack 2.08 + Verdal defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Verdal scores more
29%
level
21%
Trygg/Lade scores more
50%

Trygg/Lade at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Trygg/Lade will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Verdal 0–1 Trygg/Lade

Trygg/Lade beat Verdal 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Verdalskalk Arena in Verdal.