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Trygg/Lade vs Verdal — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Trygg/Lade
Trygg/Lade
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Verdal
Verdal
9/28/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 23OBOS Kunstgressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Trygg/Lade74%
×Draw14%
Verdal12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trygg/Lade
3.04
Verdal
1.15

Trygg/Lade creates 164% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Trygg/Lade
3.00
Verdal
1.15

allows per match

Trygg/Lade
1.15
Verdal
3.08

finishing

Trygg/Lade+0.00on par
Verdal+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trygg/Lade ↓

Verdal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Trygg/Lade or draw
88%
Trygg/Lade or Verdal
86%
Draw or Verdal
26%

Winning margin

Trygg/Lade wins by 2+
55%
Verdal wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Trygg/Lade 1+ goals
95%
Trygg/Lade 2+ goals
80%
Trygg/Lade 3+ goals
57%
Verdal 1+ goals
68%
Verdal 2+ goals
32%
Verdal 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Trygg/Lade (draw refunded)
87%
Verdal (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trygg/Lade at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Verdal away — creates 1.15, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trygg/Lade attack 3.00 + Verdal defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 3.04

Verdal attack 1.15 + Trygg/Lade defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Trygg/Lade scores more
74%
level
14%
Verdal scores more
12%

Trygg/Lade at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Trygg/Lade will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trygg/Lade vs Verdal

Trygg/Lade beat Verdal 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at OBOS Kunstgressbane in Trondheim.