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Verdal vs Stabæk II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Verdal
Verdal
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Stabæk II
Stabæk II
9/17/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 21Verdalskalk Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Verdal37%
×Draw20%
Stabæk II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Verdal
2.03
Stabæk II
2.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Verdal
1.85
Stabæk II
2.16

allows per match

Verdal
2.15
Stabæk II
2.21

finishing

Verdal+0.00on par
Stabæk II+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Verdal ↓

Stabæk II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Verdal or draw
58%
Verdal or Stabæk II
80%
Draw or Stabæk II
63%

Winning margin

Verdal wins by 2+
20%
Stabæk II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Verdal 1+ goals
87%
Verdal 2+ goals
60%
Verdal 3+ goals
33%
Stabæk II 1+ goals
88%
Stabæk II 2+ goals
63%
Stabæk II 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Verdal (draw refunded)
47%
Stabæk II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Verdal at home — creates 1.85, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

Stabæk II away — creates 2.16, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Verdal attack 1.85 + Stabæk II defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.03

Stabæk II attack 2.16 + Verdal defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Verdal scores more
37%
level
20%
Stabæk II scores more
42%

Stabæk II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stabæk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Verdal vs Stabæk II

Verdal beat Stabæk II 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 17, 2024.

The match was played at Verdalskalk Arena in Verdal.