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Stabæk II vs Verdal — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Stabæk II
Stabæk II
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Verdal
Verdal
6/2/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 9Nadderud Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Stabæk II60%
×Draw18%
Verdal22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stabæk II
2.75
Verdal
1.66

Stabæk II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Stabæk II
2.42
Verdal
1.15

allows per match

Stabæk II
2.16
Verdal
3.08

finishing

Stabæk II+0.00on par
Verdal+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stabæk II ↓

Verdal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Stabæk II or draw
78%
Stabæk II or Verdal
82%
Draw or Verdal
40%

Winning margin

Stabæk II wins by 2+
40%
Verdal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Stabæk II 1+ goals
93%
Stabæk II 2+ goals
75%
Stabæk II 3+ goals
51%
Verdal 1+ goals
81%
Verdal 2+ goals
49%
Verdal 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Stabæk II (draw refunded)
73%
Verdal (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stabæk II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

Verdal away — creates 1.15, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stabæk II attack 2.42 + Verdal defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.75

Verdal attack 1.15 + Stabæk II defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Stabæk II scores more
60%
level
18%
Verdal scores more
22%

Stabæk II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Stabæk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Stabæk II 3–3 Verdal

Stabæk II and Verdal drew 3-3 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Nadderud Stadion in Bærum.