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Veracruz vs Toluca — Liga MX 2018

Veracruz
Veracruz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Toluca
Toluca
9/30/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Luis de la Fuente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Veracruz28%
×Draw25%
Toluca47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veracruz
1.16
Toluca
1.57

Toluca creates 35% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 149 away

creates per match

Veracruz
0.77
Toluca
1.23

allows per match

Veracruz
1.92
Toluca
1.54

finishing

Veracruz+0.00on par
Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veracruz ↓

Toluca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Veracruz or draw
53%
Veracruz or Toluca
75%
Draw or Toluca
72%

Winning margin

Veracruz wins by 2+
11%
Toluca wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Veracruz 1+ goals
69%
Veracruz 2+ goals
32%
Veracruz 3+ goals
11%
Toluca 1+ goals
79%
Toluca 2+ goals
46%
Toluca 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Veracruz (draw refunded)
38%
Toluca (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veracruz at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veracruz attack 0.77 + Toluca defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.16

Toluca attack 1.23 + Veracruz defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Veracruz scores more
28%
level
25%
Toluca scores more
47%

Toluca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Veracruz 1–1 Toluca

Veracruz and Toluca drew 1-1 in Liga MX on September 30, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Luis de la Fuente in Veracruz.