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Toluca vs Veracruz — Liga MX 2018

Toluca
Toluca
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Veracruz
Veracruz
3/3/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 9Estadio Nemesio Diez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Toluca70%
×Draw18%
Veracruz12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toluca
2.36
Veracruz
0.88

Toluca creates 168% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 26 away

creates per match

Toluca
2.07
Veracruz
0.58

allows per match

Toluca
1.18
Veracruz
2.65

finishing

Toluca+0.00on par
Veracruz+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toluca ↓

Veracruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Toluca or draw
88%
Toluca or Veracruz
82%
Draw or Veracruz
30%

Winning margin

Toluca wins by 2+
47%
Veracruz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Toluca 1+ goals
90%
Toluca 2+ goals
68%
Toluca 3+ goals
41%
Veracruz 1+ goals
59%
Veracruz 2+ goals
22%
Veracruz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Toluca (draw refunded)
85%
Veracruz (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toluca at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.18 · 149 matches

Veracruz away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toluca attack 2.07 + Veracruz defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.36

Veracruz attack 0.58 + Toluca defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Toluca scores more
70%
level
18%
Veracruz scores more
12%

Toluca at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Toluca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Toluca vs Veracruz

Toluca beat Veracruz 3-1 in Liga MX on March 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Nemesio Diez in Toluca.