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Veracruz vs Tigres UANL — Liga MX 2018

Veracruz
Veracruz
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
10/19/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 14Estadio Luis de la Fuente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Veracruz23%
×Draw25%
Tigres UANL52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veracruz
0.95
Tigres UANL
1.58

Tigres UANL creates 66% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 157 away

creates per match

Veracruz
0.77
Tigres UANL
1.25

allows per match

Veracruz
1.92
Tigres UANL
1.13

finishing

Veracruz+0.00on par
Tigres UANL+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veracruz ↓

Tigres UANL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Veracruz or draw
48%
Veracruz or Tigres UANL
75%
Draw or Tigres UANL
77%

Winning margin

Veracruz wins by 2+
8%
Tigres UANL wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Veracruz 1+ goals
61%
Veracruz 2+ goals
25%
Veracruz 3+ goals
7%
Tigres UANL 1+ goals
79%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
47%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Veracruz (draw refunded)
30%
Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veracruz at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Tigres UANL away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veracruz attack 0.77 + Tigres UANL defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.95

Tigres UANL attack 1.25 + Veracruz defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Veracruz scores more
23%
level
25%
Tigres UANL scores more
52%

Tigres UANL at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veracruz vs Tigres UANL

Tigres UANL beat Veracruz 3-1 in Liga MX on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Luis de la Fuente in Veracruz.