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Tigres UANL vs Veracruz — Liga MX 2018

Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Veracruz
Veracruz
8/23/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Universitario (UANL)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Tigres UANL71%
×Draw18%
Veracruz11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tigres UANL
2.24
Veracruz
0.74

Tigres UANL creates 203% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 26 away

creates per match

Tigres UANL
1.83
Veracruz
0.58

allows per match

Tigres UANL
0.91
Veracruz
2.65

finishing

Tigres UANL+0.00on par
Veracruz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tigres UANL ↓

Veracruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tigres UANL or draw
89%
Tigres UANL or Veracruz
82%
Draw or Veracruz
29%

Winning margin

Tigres UANL wins by 2+
47%
Veracruz wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tigres UANL 1+ goals
89%
Tigres UANL 2+ goals
65%
Tigres UANL 3+ goals
38%
Veracruz 1+ goals
52%
Veracruz 2+ goals
17%
Veracruz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tigres UANL (draw refunded)
87%
Veracruz (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tigres UANL at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.91 · 161 matches

Veracruz away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tigres UANL attack 1.83 + Veracruz defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.24

Veracruz attack 0.58 + Tigres UANL defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Tigres UANL scores more
71%
level
18%
Veracruz scores more
11%

Tigres UANL at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Tigres UANL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tigres UANL vs Veracruz

Tigres UANL beat Veracruz 4-0 in Liga MX on August 23, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario (UANL) in Monterrey.