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Veracruz vs Santos Laguna — Liga MX 2018

Veracruz
Veracruz
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
3/9/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Luis Pirata Fuente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Veracruz33%
×Draw25%
Santos Laguna41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veracruz
1.32
Santos Laguna
1.50

Santos Laguna creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 142 away

creates per match

Veracruz
0.77
Santos Laguna
1.09

allows per match

Veracruz
1.92
Santos Laguna
1.87

finishing

Veracruz+0.00on par
Santos Laguna+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veracruz ↓

Santos Laguna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Veracruz or draw
59%
Veracruz or Santos Laguna
75%
Draw or Santos Laguna
67%

Winning margin

Veracruz wins by 2+
15%
Santos Laguna wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Veracruz 1+ goals
73%
Veracruz 2+ goals
38%
Veracruz 3+ goals
15%
Santos Laguna 1+ goals
78%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
44%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Veracruz (draw refunded)
45%
Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veracruz at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Santos Laguna away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.87 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veracruz attack 0.77 + Santos Laguna defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.32

Santos Laguna attack 1.09 + Veracruz defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Veracruz scores more
33%
level
25%
Santos Laguna scores more
41%

Santos Laguna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veracruz vs Santos Laguna

Veracruz and Santos Laguna drew 2-2 in Liga MX on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Pirata Fuente in Veracruz.