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Santos Laguna vs Veracruz — Liga MX 2018

Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Veracruz
Veracruz
9/23/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 10Estadio TSM Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Santos Laguna66%
×Draw19%
Veracruz14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos Laguna
2.15
Veracruz
0.88

Santos Laguna creates 144% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 26 away

creates per match

Santos Laguna
1.66
Veracruz
0.58

allows per match

Santos Laguna
1.18
Veracruz
2.65

finishing

Santos Laguna+0.00on par
Veracruz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos Laguna ↓

Veracruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Santos Laguna or draw
86%
Santos Laguna or Veracruz
81%
Draw or Veracruz
34%

Winning margin

Santos Laguna wins by 2+
42%
Veracruz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Santos Laguna 1+ goals
88%
Santos Laguna 2+ goals
63%
Santos Laguna 3+ goals
36%
Veracruz 1+ goals
59%
Veracruz 2+ goals
22%
Veracruz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Santos Laguna (draw refunded)
82%
Veracruz (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos Laguna at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.18 · 145 matches

Veracruz away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos Laguna attack 1.66 + Veracruz defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.15

Veracruz attack 0.58 + Santos Laguna defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Santos Laguna scores more
66%
level
19%
Veracruz scores more
14%

Santos Laguna at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Santos Laguna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Santos Laguna 1–1 Veracruz

Santos Laguna and Veracruz drew 1-1 in Liga MX on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio TSM Corona in Torreon.