Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Veracruz vs Puebla — Liga MX 2018

Veracruz
Veracruz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Puebla
Puebla
1/26/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 4Estadio Luis Pirata Fuente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Veracruz31%
×Draw26%
Puebla43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veracruz
1.22
Puebla
1.48

Puebla creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 141 away

creates per match

Veracruz
0.77
Puebla
1.05

allows per match

Veracruz
1.92
Puebla
1.67

finishing

Veracruz+0.00on par
Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veracruz ↓

Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Veracruz or draw
57%
Veracruz or Puebla
74%
Draw or Puebla
69%

Winning margin

Veracruz wins by 2+
13%
Puebla wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Veracruz 1+ goals
70%
Veracruz 2+ goals
34%
Veracruz 3+ goals
12%
Puebla 1+ goals
77%
Puebla 2+ goals
43%
Puebla 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Veracruz (draw refunded)
42%
Puebla (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veracruz at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veracruz attack 0.77 + Puebla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.22

Puebla attack 1.05 + Veracruz defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Veracruz scores more
31%
level
26%
Puebla scores more
43%

Puebla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Puebla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veracruz vs Puebla

Puebla beat Veracruz 1-0 in Liga MX on January 26, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Pirata Fuente in Veracruz.