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Puebla vs Veracruz — Liga MX 2018

Puebla
Puebla
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Veracruz
Veracruz
8/11/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Cuauhtemoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Puebla59%
×Draw22%
Veracruz19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Puebla
1.96
Veracruz
1.02

Puebla creates 92% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 26 away

creates per match

Puebla
1.26
Veracruz
0.58

allows per match

Puebla
1.47
Veracruz
2.65

finishing

Puebla+0.00on par
Veracruz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puebla ↓

Veracruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Puebla or draw
81%
Puebla or Veracruz
78%
Draw or Veracruz
41%

Winning margin

Puebla wins by 2+
35%
Veracruz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Puebla 1+ goals
86%
Puebla 2+ goals
58%
Puebla 3+ goals
31%
Veracruz 1+ goals
64%
Veracruz 2+ goals
27%
Veracruz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Puebla (draw refunded)
75%
Veracruz (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puebla at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 140 matches

Veracruz away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puebla attack 1.26 + Veracruz defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.96

Veracruz attack 0.58 + Puebla defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Puebla scores more
59%
level
22%
Veracruz scores more
19%

Puebla at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Puebla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Puebla vs Veracruz

Veracruz beat Puebla 2-1 in Liga MX on August 11, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Cuauhtemoc in Puebla.