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Veracruz vs Guadalajara Chivas — Liga MX 2018

Veracruz
Veracruz
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
8/18/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 5Estadio Luis Pirata Fuente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Veracruz24%
×Draw26%
Guadalajara Chivas50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veracruz
1.00
Guadalajara Chivas
1.55

Guadalajara Chivas creates 55% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 146 away

creates per match

Veracruz
0.77
Guadalajara Chivas
1.18

allows per match

Veracruz
1.92
Guadalajara Chivas
1.23

finishing

Veracruz+0.00on par
Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veracruz ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Veracruz or draw
50%
Veracruz or Guadalajara Chivas
74%
Draw or Guadalajara Chivas
76%

Winning margin

Veracruz wins by 2+
9%
Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Veracruz 1+ goals
63%
Veracruz 2+ goals
26%
Veracruz 3+ goals
8%
Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
79%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
46%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Veracruz (draw refunded)
33%
Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veracruz at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.23 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veracruz attack 0.77 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.00

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.18 + Veracruz defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Veracruz scores more
24%
level
26%
Guadalajara Chivas scores more
50%

Guadalajara Chivas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veracruz vs Guadalajara Chivas

Guadalajara Chivas beat Veracruz 2-0 in Liga MX on August 18, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Pirata Fuente in Veracruz.