Guadalajara Chivas 3–1 Veracruz: Result & Stats

Guadalajara Chivas

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Veracruz

11/24/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 19Estadio AKRON

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas66%

×Draw20%

Veracruz14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guadalajara ChivasExpected goals in this matchVeracruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.81

Guadalajara Chivas

2.04

Veracruz

0.81

Guadalajara Chivas creates 152% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 26 away

1.42

creates per match

0.58

1.04

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.42

Veracruz

0.58

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas

1.04

Veracruz

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par

Veracruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

Veracruz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw

86%

Guadalajara Chivas or Veracruz

80%

Draw or Veracruz

34%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+

41%

Veracruz wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals

87%

Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals

60%

Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals

33%

Veracruz 1+ goals

56%

Veracruz 2+ goals

19%

Veracruz 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)

82%

Veracruz (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.04 · 147 matches

Veracruz away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.42 + Veracruz defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.04

Veracruz attack 0.58 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more

66%

level

20%

Veracruz scores more

14%

Guadalajara Chivas at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff