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Veracruz vs Cruz Azul — Liga MX 2018

Veracruz
Veracruz
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
9/14/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 9Estadio Luis de la Fuente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Veracruz23%
×Draw25%
Cruz Azul52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veracruz
0.99
Cruz Azul
1.61

Cruz Azul creates 63% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 156 away

creates per match

Veracruz
0.77
Cruz Azul
1.31

allows per match

Veracruz
1.92
Cruz Azul
1.22

finishing

Veracruz+0.00on par
Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veracruz ↓

Cruz Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Veracruz or draw
48%
Veracruz or Cruz Azul
75%
Draw or Cruz Azul
77%

Winning margin

Veracruz wins by 2+
8%
Cruz Azul wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Veracruz 1+ goals
63%
Veracruz 2+ goals
26%
Veracruz 3+ goals
8%
Cruz Azul 1+ goals
80%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
48%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Veracruz (draw refunded)
31%
Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veracruz at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veracruz attack 0.77 + Cruz Azul defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.99

Cruz Azul attack 1.31 + Veracruz defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Veracruz scores more
23%
level
25%
Cruz Azul scores more
52%

Cruz Azul at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Veracruz 0–0 Cruz Azul

Veracruz and Cruz Azul drew 0-0 in Liga MX on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Luis de la Fuente in Veracruz.