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Cruz Azul vs Veracruz — Liga MX 2018

Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Veracruz
Veracruz
9/1/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Azul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cruz Azul69%
×Draw19%
Veracruz12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruz Azul
2.15
Veracruz
0.78

Cruz Azul creates 176% more chances

Season form · 159 home / 26 away

creates per match

Cruz Azul
1.66
Veracruz
0.58

allows per match

Cruz Azul
0.98
Veracruz
2.65

finishing

Cruz Azul+0.00on par
Veracruz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruz Azul ↓

Veracruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cruz Azul or draw
88%
Cruz Azul or Veracruz
81%
Draw or Veracruz
31%

Winning margin

Cruz Azul wins by 2+
44%
Veracruz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cruz Azul 1+ goals
88%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
63%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
36%
Veracruz 1+ goals
54%
Veracruz 2+ goals
18%
Veracruz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
85%
Veracruz (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruz Azul at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.98 · 159 matches

Veracruz away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruz Azul attack 1.66 + Veracruz defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.15

Veracruz attack 0.58 + Cruz Azul defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Cruz Azul scores more
69%
level
19%
Veracruz scores more
12%

Cruz Azul at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cruz Azul vs Veracruz

Cruz Azul beat Veracruz 4-1 in Liga MX on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Azul in Mexico City.